HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JANUARY 1, 2011
by Dick PowellAnd here I thought Santa Anita was going to dirt. Who knew that asphalt was going to be the new racing surface at "The Great Race Place?"
I have written here before that my main complaint with dirt tracks is their maintenance after they are wet. I understand why they need to sealed before and during rainy weather but I question why they are not harrowed deeper when they are drying out? Harrowing deeper would mean that more of the cushion is turned over and not still sealed on top of the base which results in a safer running surface.
Around the world, hard turf courses are considered dangerous and trainers will refuse to race if the course is not watered enough. Hard is not good, whether it's turf, dirt, or synthetic. Yes, there are some horses that thrive on them but the usual result is horses coming out of races with bone chips and other concussive injuries.
On opening day at Santa Anita, everyone knew the track would be fast since it was brand new and subject to torrential rains that have been hitting the Southern California area. There were a couple of days when training had to be suspended and you can bet your last dollar that the newly-installed dirt track was sealed tighter than a drum to keep it from washing away.
But when the rain stopped and the sun came out, it would have made sense to start turning the dirt over and groom it evenly to get it back to where it should be.
In the history of American racing, I defy anyone to come up with a six-furlong maiden race for two-year-olds that was run in 1:06.98. But, that was all it took for THE FACTOR (War Front) to win the 4TH race on Sunday for Bob Baffert. I'm not saying that he was going fast, but air traffic controllers at LAX had him cleared for takeoff after he ran his last quarter in :22.87. Whooooosh!
In the seven-furlong La Brea S. (G1) for three-year-old fillies, SWITCH (Quiet American) came from just off the pace and snuck up the inside to win going away. Tornado Betty (Comic Strip) lived up to her name by setting bristling fractions of :22 and :43.81. What made this audacious display of gate speed even more amazing was that she had never shown gas of this kind before. In her last three sprint races, her BRIS Early Pace figures were 79, 83 and 85 yet here she was running a hole in the wind.
Switch has had a terrific season with a win over probable three-year-old filly champion Blind Luck (Pollard's Vision) and seconds behind Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret (G1) and Dubai Majesty (Essence of Dubai) in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) so her win was no surprise. Her final time for seven furlongs of 1:20.33 was off the charts and she won easily. Who knows how fast she could have gone had she been pressed to win?
Next up was the Sir Beaufort S. (G3) which was washed off the turf and run on the main track. The field was scratched down to five and the 3-10 favorite was SIDNEY'S CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) who looked like he had these at his mercy. He broke on top as usual and then just kept pouring it on. A half in :45.03 was followed by six furlongs in 1:08.45 and then it was a matter of how much Joel Rosario would ask him to run through the stretch. Horses running this fast are hard to slow down so he cruised to the wire to win by 7 1/4 lengths in the time of 1:33.70.
By now the conversation was whether or not Spectacular Bid's track record for seven furlongs of 1:20 was going to be in danger in the Malibu S. (G1). Based on the La Brea result, 1:20 was the over/under for the Malibu’s final time and if you bet the under, go to the window.
I can't say it was never in doubt since Alcindor (Unbridled's Song) went to the front from his inside post position and made a clear lead in only :22.72. Smiling Tiger (Hold That Tiger) took up the chase and they dueled through a half in :44.69 -- almost a full second slower than the La Brea. Maybe "The Bid" would dodge the bullet as most track records are won off extremely fast paces, but these three-year-old males were just warming up.
Noble's Promise (Cuvee) was making the leading pair run hard and TWIRLING CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) was putting pressure on from the four path. After Noble's Promise was the first to give way, Smiling Tiger went up after Alcindor and with a furlong remaining took a short lead. Alcindor, in only his third lifetime start, was battling on bravely but Smiling Tiger surged to the lead and looked home free until Twirling Candy's final surge nailed him at the wire to win by a nose. Alcindor lost the show photo to Caracortado (Cat Dreams) who had to overcome traffic at a crucial point in the race.
With six furlongs posted in 1:07.58, it was no surprise that Spectacular Bid's 30-year-old record was history as Twirling Candy's final time was 1:19.70. For the record, all three of the graded stakes went to trainer John Sadler, who was not able to attend Sunday's races due to a knee injury, and Rosario rode all three. The Craig Family Trust bred and owned Sidney's Candy and Twirling Candy, both sired by Candy Ride.
We'll see how the horses come out of these races and what wear and tear it has on them in the future.
I am a great believer in using the Jockey Stats that are included in the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances. They give you the jockey's win percentage for the year as well as return on investment overall and then break it down to how they do in sprints, routes, and turf. I use them constantly and the more familiar you become with them, the more you will be able to spot trends of riders before anyone else might.
Kerwin "Boo Boo" Clark has had an amazing 2010 racing season and to say that he is flying below the radar screen is an understatement. With 2010 just about over, he has accomplished something that I have never seen done and it merits attention.
As of Monday, December 27, Clark has had 800 mounts and he has won with 15 percent of them and shows a flat-bet profit of +0.21 for the year. But, like they say on TV, "but, wait, there's more." Clark shows a flat-bet profit of +0.81 for the year with his 115 turf mounts, a flat-bet profit of +0.08 for his 519 sprint mounts and a flat-bet profit of +0.47 for his 278 route mounts.
I follow these stats for many circuits and I have never seen anyone do what Kerwin "Boo Boo" Clark has done this year and it deserves your attention. Approaching 51 years of age, he’s not going to be the next riding sensation but if you are playing Fair Grounds this winter, you better be paying attention to who "Boo Boo" is riding.
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