HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

DECEMBER 17, 2010

by Dick Powell
Fair Grounds opened up its 139th racing season on Thanksgiving Day and this year's meet is a little bit different than what you might be used to seeing. Open company maiden special weight classes are now running for $45,000 and Louisiana-bred maiden special weight classes have been reduced to $37,000 as the race office is doing everything they can to get the open company races to fill. Purses are up overall and the meet is off to a good start due to good weather and going back to the traditional Thanksgiving Day opening.
One thing that jumps off the page when you go back and examine the charts for this year's meet is how well horses drawn on the inside have done in sprint races. This is dramatically different from last year when horses drawn on the outside had just as good a chance as horses drawn on the inside. Part of it may be due to the terrific weather New Orleans has had so far this year and we haven't had many sloppy tracks where the rail is more tiring than the outside.
Last year at this time of the meet, speed was dominating the six furlong races. The 77 races run at six furlongs on the main track had a BRIS Speed Bias of 74 percent. At the first call, the average distance behind the leader for the winner was only 1.5 lengths. This year, after 57 races were run at six furlongs on the main track, there was a BRIS Speed Bias of 56 percent and the average distance behind the leader for the winner was 2.6 lengths.
In last year's 77 six furlong races run on the main track, 42 percent of them were won gate to wire. In this year's 57 six furlong races run on the main track, 26 percent of them were won gate to wire. For years, I always did well at the Fair Grounds by playing speed horses in the sprints since many other bettors see that long stretch and assume that closers will dominate. This year, those horses that I thought had an edge due to their running style have been getting caught more than usual.
But there seems to be hope as speed absolutely dominated on Monday's card. There are a couple of ways that I look at it to see if there any running biases. One is to watch the races, another is to read all the charts and the third is to take into account the actual chances of the individual horses.
In the 1ST race, OF GAB (High Brite) held on grimly to win at odds of 95-10 and beat the more fancied G G'S GIRL (Buddha) going six furlongs. Race two, at 5 1/2 furlongs, was dominated by the speedy odds-on favorite SPICEY WORLD (Planet Earth), but he was going to win no matter what the bias was. In the 4TH four, MR. FUZZYBOTTOM (Forest Wildcat) went gate to wire to win by less than a length. In race five, the early speed horse, REFLATE THE BUBBLE (Langfuhr), gunned to the front through a first quarter in :21.87 and when he tired, the pace-prompting WISE GOODBYES (Wised Up) took over and won easily.
The 6TH six confirmed any doubts about the speed-favoring nature of Monday's main track going six furlongs. WHAT AN HONOR (Double Honor), the near 22-1 longshot, gunned to the front and opened up a clear lead. In his last two starts, against this claiming level, he finished 22 3/4 and 20 lengths behind while running BRIS Late Pace figures of 43 and 52. Watching Monday's 6TH race, you kept expecting What an Honor to quit in the stretch but he kept on going to the final yards. MAUI CRUSIER (Smooth Jazz) was the one doing all the chasing and finally wore him down in the final yards. He didn't win but What an Honor certainly benefited from the speed bias there was on Monday.
Finally, in the last race of the day, U SCENE MORONI (Orbit's Scene) chased the favored GOLDIE'S FINEST (Finest Hour) around the track and held on easily for second at 31-1 odds.
When a racetrack has a historical pattern and then doesn't conform to that historical pattern, the chances are that it will eventually return to that historical pattern unless there is some extenuating circumstance. The Fair Grounds main track looks like it is returning to the norm of being speed-favoring in dirt sprints and we'll keep track of it in the coming weeks.
The turf course at Fair Grounds seems to behaving in a rational manner; closers still dominate. For instance, last year there were 53 races run at a mile on the Stall-Wilson turf course with a BRIS Speed Bias of 30 percent and only 11 percent of the races were run gate to wire. This year, there have been 16 races run at a mile on the turf and the BRIS Speed Bias is 38 percent and there have been no gate-to-wire winners. For races run at 1 1/16 miles on the turf, the results have been almost identical as speed continues to struggle.
In the turf sprint races, last year there were 40 races run at the distance of about 5 1/2 furlongs and they had a BRIS Speed Bias of 45 percent and 20 percent were won going gate to wire. This year, there have been five races run at about 5 1/2 furlongs and they have a BRIS Speed Rating of 40 percent and 20 percent were won going gate to wire.
The Fair Grounds turf course is a sand-based one and it behaves differently than most. When it is dry, it will perform like a cuppy, dirt track and yield very slow times and not favor horses that run on the lead. When it gets some moisture in it, it will help the speed more since it will stay together better. Therefore, don't assume a race run on "good" turf will be less kind to speed horses than one run on "firm" turf. Usually, it's the opposite.