Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Gulfstream ™ Alw 51500n1x 1 Mile. (T) 4upF&M Thursday, January 27, 2011 Race 8

#3 Cosset

HANDICAPPING FEATURE

HANDICAPPING FEATURE
JANUARY 12, 2011
Prime Power: A great elimination tool for your playing practice
by Art Parker
It's a tough game we play, this thing called horse racing. It begins with intrigue followed by curiosity. Then comes investigation followed by a few answers. Bad tickets crash to the ground while these stages come and go. At some point we experience enough success to make us more determined than ever to seek even more answers. We experiment with and try various systems (anyone who says they have never tried a system is a liar).
One day we wake up and realize that playing the horses is like practicing medicine or practicing law. It is practice, not perfection. A physician gathers information about a patient and does his best to make a correct diagnosis before deciding on a remedy. That's what we do. We look at every race the way the physician looks at every patient. We are in hot pursuit of the correct diagnosis of every race we exam because a correct remedy results in an instant reward.
Some of us do what doctors and lawyers do and become specialists. We begin to ignore certain types of races and limit our play to those types that make it easier to "perfect our practice." Years ago I determined that my best results playing the horses came by playing sprints. My definition of a sprint is a race around one turn of at least 5 1/2 furlongs but not more than seven furlongs. I decided that my sprint play should be limited to dirt (main track) races only, which is not difficult since we have few sprints on the turf in this country.
After a while I narrowed my practice down to claiming and allowance races only. No maidens, no stakes and no babies. My serious horse play would be sprints on dirt, claiming or allowance only (including starter races). Naturally, I play the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Breeders' Cup every year, and some tournaments on occasion, but my daily practice is limited to a well-defined group of races.
Specialists or not, all of us with many years at this game continue to digest enormous amounts of information about horse racing. We read tons of material every year, most of which is discarded because experienced players have pretty much seen it all, or we think we have seen it all. We learn what information to trust, and we keep at our fingertips the information we believe is necessary to be successful.
While novices are looking for the system to "pick winners," we simply look for an angle or tidbits of information that may help us identify and discard pretenders. We know that brain power is the ultimate, final authority in our practice and that is why we make our final selections instead of relying upon someone else to make them for us.
I tossed the Daily Racing Form a few years ago and replaced it with Brisnet because of the healthy supply of information in Brisnet past performances. Brisnet gave me extra elimination tools and most of all, the trainer information made a great compliment for my own trainer files.
At first, I was reluctant to use Brisnet's "Prime Power," mainly because I thought it was placed in the past performances as a "system" to help the novice player. As my Dad use to tell me, that's what you get for thinking when you're not used to it!
I decided to use Prime Power after a trip to Keeneland. A friend in my hometown (Millbrook, Alabama) had never seen a horse race and asked me to take him on a trip to Kentucky, "Whenever you can tear yourself away from that computer racing," he said. I promised him a couple of days at a special place called Keeneland when October rolled around.
Sitting on an outside bench on a beautiful October day at Keeneland will make you forget about all of the problems that plague the world. My friend was happy with a cold beer and his first-ever helping of Burgoo as I was absorbing my Brisnet information. About 10 minutes before post time of the first race, a fellow sat down on the bench and I quickly sensed he was trying to read my stuff. I looked at him and growled, "What the hell do you want?" He was quick to beg forgiveness and said, "I forgot to run my Brisnet sheets and I just want you to tell me who the big number is in this race?"
At that time I did not know what he was talking about. I responded with, "The biggest speed figure?" He said he wanted the top Prime Power number. I told him who it was and he said nothing else. As he was examining the Daily Racing Form I heard him talking to himself and saying; "Now it makes sense. That's why he is the big number."
As it turned out, the top Prime Power horse won the race. I looked at the guy and asked him if that's the way he always plays. He said he always started with Brisnet's top Prime Power and then tried to validate that horse as the best by looking at the past performances. "If I'm not comfortable with their top two to three selections I just pass the race," he explained.
After that trip to Keeneland I began to tinker with Prime Power and causally tested it to confirm Brisnet's performance claims. After a while I realized that I made a mistake with my initial assessment and I began to pay closer attention to Prime Power using it as another tool for elimination of pretenders in a race. What I like best about Prime Power is that one can look near the bottom of a long list of entrants and see the point disparities. It is a quick way to grasp the idea that a horse, or several horses, have a lot going against them, or they have just too much to overcome. Brisnet's Prime Power is such a good tool one can save tremendous time, not trying to select winners with it, but eliminating horses from consideration without seeking validation of insufficiencies.
Oh, it's true; every now and then you are bitten by one of those low rated horses eliminated from consideration when it crosses the line first. But just remember, its practice, not perfection.
I'm still trying to complete several Prime Power studies from this past year of racing, and hope to share those soon. In the meantime I encourage you to look at Prime Power if you haven't already and do some test work on your own. You never know, you may turn "practice into perfection."
-Art Parker is the editor and general manager of The Millbrook Independent newspaper in Millbrook, Alabama, and has been an avid horse player for 25 years


BRIS TRAINER/JOCKEY STATS FROM PAST 60 DAYS

BRIS TRAINER/JOCKEY STATS FROM PAST 60 DAYS
Trainer/Jockey Combo Starts Wins Win %
Chambers Mike/Vonrosen A 29 15 52%
Aguirre Juan R/Hernandez Rafael Manuel 16 8 50%
Baffert Bob/Bejarano R 34 15 44%
Hanson Jim/Charlton Cheryl 39 17 44%
Lawson Charles/Paucar E 23 10 43%
Calhoun William Bret/Berry M C 24 10 42%
Iannotti Thomas Iv/Chiappe R 28 11 39%
Shanyfelt Doug/Parker D L 28 11 39%
Sano Antonio/Coa E M 18 7 39%
Graham P Dudley/Olesiak J 18 7 39%
Parboo Bisnath/Alvarez Jose L 39 15 38%
Sherman Steve M/Romero Hector R 29 11 38%
Von Hemel Donnie K/Berry M C 16 6 38%
Carava Jack/Pedroza M A 16 6 38%
Holt Larry W/Creed Ben 16 6 38%
Hollendorfer Jerry/Baze R A 46 17 37%
Dutrow Anthony W/Pennington F 17 6 35%
Wells David/Cora D 20 7 35%
Beattie Todd M/Potts C L 20 7 35%
Levine Bruce/Carmouche K 23 8 35%
O'Neill Doug/Bejarano R 26 9 35%
Small Richard W/Boyce Forest 30 10 33%
Hone Bart/Hernandez M G 27 9 33%
Hollendorfer Jerry/Rosario Joel 24 8 33%
Wilson Shane/Smith Kevin J 21 7 33%
Fawkes David/Coa E M 18 6 33%
Arnett Jon G/Tohill K S 15 5 33%
Sadler John W/Talamo Joseph 15 5 33%
McLaughlin Kiaran P/Garcia A 15 5 33%
Carava Jack/Rosario Joel 15 5 33%

Gulfstream Alw 51500n1x 1 Mile. (T) 4up Wednesday, January 26, 2011 Race 8

#1 Upgrade

http://www.brisnet.com/Promo/rd_contest/rotd2011-01-26.pdf

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

BRIS TRAINER/JOCKEY STATS FROM PAST 60 DAYS

BRIS TRAINER/JOCKEY STATS FROM PAST 60 DAYS
Trainer/Jockey Combo Starts Wins Win %
Chambers Mike/Vonrosen A 33 20 61%
Casse Mark/Contreras Luis 15 8 53%
Hanson Jim/Charlton Cheryl 34 16 47%
Baffert Bob/Bejarano R 17 8 47%
Margolis Stephen R/Bridgmohan S X 15 7 47%
Hollendorfer Jerry/Baze R A 44 20 45%
Shanyfelt Doug/Parker D L 42 19 45%
Ferraro Michael/Gutierrez J A 21 9 43%
Parboo Bisnath/Alvarez Jose L 38 16 42%
Runco Jeff C/Lopez Antonio 41 17 41%
Maker Michael J/Santana J Z 15 6 40%
Chambers Mike/Barton J 15 6 40%
Sano Antonio/Coa E M 15 6 40%
Sherman Steve M/Baze R A 38 15 39%
Levine Bruce/Carmouche K 28 11 39%
Hollendorfer Jerry/Rosario Joel 23 9 39%
Violette Richard Jr/Garcia A 18 7 39%
Lovell Michelle/Eramia Richard E 26 10 38%
Calhoun William Bret/Berry M C 21 8 38%
Hartman Chris/Zimmerman R 56 21 38%
Gatis Chris/Cruz M R 16 6 38%
Jenkins Rodney/Dunkelberger T L 16 6 38%
Englehart Chris/Davila J R Jr 38 14 37%
Dutrow Anthony W/Pennington F 19 7 37%
Plesa Edward Jr/Lopez Pascacio 39 14 36%

Gulfstream ™ Alw 51500n1x 1 Mile. (T) 3yo Fillies Wednesday, January 5, 2011 Race 7

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29/42 2129/42 21#5 Silent Joy 90

Monday, January 3, 2011

Penn National ‘ Alw 32000n1x 1Ñ Mile. 4up Tuesday, January 4, 2011 Race 4

5 Shellback

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JANUARY 1, 2011
by Dick Powell
And here I thought Santa Anita was going to dirt. Who knew that asphalt was going to be the new racing surface at "The Great Race Place?"
I have written here before that my main complaint with dirt tracks is their maintenance after they are wet. I understand why they need to sealed before and during rainy weather but I question why they are not harrowed deeper when they are drying out? Harrowing deeper would mean that more of the cushion is turned over and not still sealed on top of the base which results in a safer running surface.
Around the world, hard turf courses are considered dangerous and trainers will refuse to race if the course is not watered enough. Hard is not good, whether it's turf, dirt, or synthetic. Yes, there are some horses that thrive on them but the usual result is horses coming out of races with bone chips and other concussive injuries.
On opening day at Santa Anita, everyone knew the track would be fast since it was brand new and subject to torrential rains that have been hitting the Southern California area. There were a couple of days when training had to be suspended and you can bet your last dollar that the newly-installed dirt track was sealed tighter than a drum to keep it from washing away.
But when the rain stopped and the sun came out, it would have made sense to start turning the dirt over and groom it evenly to get it back to where it should be.
In the history of American racing, I defy anyone to come up with a six-furlong maiden race for two-year-olds that was run in 1:06.98. But, that was all it took for THE FACTOR (War Front) to win the 4TH race on Sunday for Bob Baffert. I'm not saying that he was going fast, but air traffic controllers at LAX had him cleared for takeoff after he ran his last quarter in :22.87. Whooooosh!
In the seven-furlong La Brea S. (G1) for three-year-old fillies, SWITCH (Quiet American) came from just off the pace and snuck up the inside to win going away. Tornado Betty (Comic Strip) lived up to her name by setting bristling fractions of :22 and :43.81. What made this audacious display of gate speed even more amazing was that she had never shown gas of this kind before. In her last three sprint races, her BRIS Early Pace figures were 79, 83 and 85 yet here she was running a hole in the wind.
Switch has had a terrific season with a win over probable three-year-old filly champion Blind Luck (Pollard's Vision) and seconds behind Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret (G1) and Dubai Majesty (Essence of Dubai) in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) so her win was no surprise. Her final time for seven furlongs of 1:20.33 was off the charts and she won easily. Who knows how fast she could have gone had she been pressed to win?
Next up was the Sir Beaufort S. (G3) which was washed off the turf and run on the main track. The field was scratched down to five and the 3-10 favorite was SIDNEY'S CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) who looked like he had these at his mercy. He broke on top as usual and then just kept pouring it on. A half in :45.03 was followed by six furlongs in 1:08.45 and then it was a matter of how much Joel Rosario would ask him to run through the stretch. Horses running this fast are hard to slow down so he cruised to the wire to win by 7 1/4 lengths in the time of 1:33.70.
By now the conversation was whether or not Spectacular Bid's track record for seven furlongs of 1:20 was going to be in danger in the Malibu S. (G1). Based on the La Brea result, 1:20 was the over/under for the Malibu’s final time and if you bet the under, go to the window.
I can't say it was never in doubt since Alcindor (Unbridled's Song) went to the front from his inside post position and made a clear lead in only :22.72. Smiling Tiger (Hold That Tiger) took up the chase and they dueled through a half in :44.69 -- almost a full second slower than the La Brea. Maybe "The Bid" would dodge the bullet as most track records are won off extremely fast paces, but these three-year-old males were just warming up.
Noble's Promise (Cuvee) was making the leading pair run hard and TWIRLING CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) was putting pressure on from the four path. After Noble's Promise was the first to give way, Smiling Tiger went up after Alcindor and with a furlong remaining took a short lead. Alcindor, in only his third lifetime start, was battling on bravely but Smiling Tiger surged to the lead and looked home free until Twirling Candy's final surge nailed him at the wire to win by a nose. Alcindor lost the show photo to Caracortado (Cat Dreams) who had to overcome traffic at a crucial point in the race.
With six furlongs posted in 1:07.58, it was no surprise that Spectacular Bid's 30-year-old record was history as Twirling Candy's final time was 1:19.70. For the record, all three of the graded stakes went to trainer John Sadler, who was not able to attend Sunday's races due to a knee injury, and Rosario rode all three. The Craig Family Trust bred and owned Sidney's Candy and Twirling Candy, both sired by Candy Ride.
We'll see how the horses come out of these races and what wear and tear it has on them in the future.
I am a great believer in using the Jockey Stats that are included in the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances. They give you the jockey's win percentage for the year as well as return on investment overall and then break it down to how they do in sprints, routes, and turf. I use them constantly and the more familiar you become with them, the more you will be able to spot trends of riders before anyone else might.
Kerwin "Boo Boo" Clark has had an amazing 2010 racing season and to say that he is flying below the radar screen is an understatement. With 2010 just about over, he has accomplished something that I have never seen done and it merits attention.
As of Monday, December 27, Clark has had 800 mounts and he has won with 15 percent of them and shows a flat-bet profit of +0.21 for the year. But, like they say on TV, "but, wait, there's more." Clark shows a flat-bet profit of +0.81 for the year with his 115 turf mounts, a flat-bet profit of +0.08 for his 519 sprint mounts and a flat-bet profit of +0.47 for his 278 route mounts.
I follow these stats for many circuits and I have never seen anyone do what Kerwin "Boo Boo" Clark has done this year and it deserves your attention. Approaching 51 years of age, he’s not going to be the next riding sensation but if you are playing Fair Grounds this winter, you better be paying attention to who "Boo Boo" is riding.